The Reasoning Behind Each Pick

Aston Villa are the standout pick of the week. Unai Emery’s side have won seven consecutive Europa League matches and have not conceded against Bologna in either of their two previous meetings this season. Bologna are without first choice goalkeeper Lukasz Skorupski through injury, have lost two of their last three home games, and are missing several key players. Villa are the better team on current form and should have enough to take a narrow first leg win in Italy.

Fiorentina not to lose at Crystal Palace is a well-supported angle in the Conference League. Palace have drawn their last three matches in the competition, including a goalless draw at home, and struggle to create clear chances consistently. Fiorentina arrive unbeaten in six consecutive games and are a well-organised side. With the second leg to come in Florence the following week, a draw or a Fiorentina win both feel more likely than a Palace victory, and the double chance covers both outcomes.

Porto versus Nottingham Forest is the most intriguing game of the night. Forest are fighting a Premier League relegation battle but have been a completely different side in Europe, with Igor Jesus transforming into one of the competition’s top scorers with seven Europa League goals this season. Crucially, Forest already beat Porto 2-0 at the City Ground in the league phase. Porto will push hard at home and Forest will not sit back. Both teams to score feels like the natural outcome.

Rayo Vallecano at home to AEK Athens in the Conference League is a solid home win pick. Rayo have been excellent in European competition this season and enjoy home advantage in this first leg. AEK have struggled on the road in the Conference League and face a difficult night at Vallecas. Rayo have the quality to control this game and take all three points.

The Shakhtar Donetsk versus AZ Alkmaar over 2.5 goals pick is backed by strong statistical evidence. Shakhtar have not kept a clean sheet in their last five European home games. AZ scored ten goals across their last three European matches, including a 4-0 demolition of Sparta Prague. Every one of the three previous competitive meetings between these sides has produced more than 2.5 goals. This has all the ingredients of an open, entertaining first leg in Krakow.

Good luck to everyone following along. We will have full reaction to all the Europa League and Conference League results later this week.